Gold is up nearly 60% year-to-date, substantially outperforming bitcoin, which, in comparison, is up a paltry 13% – despite all the talk of a bull market.
Analysts say that gold isn’t overpriced, despite the epic rally, and traders on Kalshi are confident that 2025 will be the year that the yellow metal outperforms BTC.
Yet data from Hyperliquid suggests crypto traders remain offside. Only 34% of positions are long, with just 35% of traders profitable, and a majority caught in losing short positions as volatility whipsaws markets as hyper-leveraged accounts increase the G-forces on the roller coaster.
The average user’s daily PnL has sunk to just under $50K, indicating that most have been consistently on the wrong side of the market.
It’s a telling snapshot of a trading community caught flat-footed. The latest wipeout of celebrity trader Machi Big Brother, whose account plunged from $43 million in profits to over $13 million in losses, underscores how overleveraged bets on bitcoin’s rebound continue to backfire.
The combination of misplaced conviction and excessive leverage has turned crypto markets into a graveyard of mistimed trades rather than a reflection of genuine macro demand.
Glassnode’s latest market report reinforces this picture of fragility.
The research firm describes the recent $19 billion deleveraging as one of the largest in bitcoin’s history, wiping out leverage and leaving the market in what it calls a “reset phase.”
Funding rates have plunged to 2022 FTX-collapse levels, ETF inflows have turned negative, and long-term holders are distributing into strength. Glassnode warns that unless new demand emerges, bitcoin risks deeper contraction below the $108,000 level.
In contrast, gold’s ascent has been driven by conviction rather than leverage. Geopolitical tension, cooling inflation, and rate-cut bets have all reinforced its appeal as a haven asset in a world of macro uncertainty. Crypto’s speculative structure, dependent on ETF flows and derivatives leverage, hasn’t been able to capture the same narrative tailwind.
For now, the data tells a clear story: traders may still want a bitcoin bull market, but the market they actually have looks a lot more like gold’s.
Market Movement:
BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $108,287, sliding on renewed risk aversion, profit‑taking after recent rallies, and macro uncertainty.
ETH: Ether is changing hands at $3891, experiencing a sell-off in tandem with BTC as speculative demand weakens amid broader crypto pressure.
Gold: Gold is rallying as investors seek a safe-haven given ongoing geopolitical tension and expectations of U.S. rate cuts.
Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 is down 0.3% as major markets across Asia slip on growing concerns of geopolitical tensions.
