The volume of the prediction market increased by more than five times during the third quarter of 2025, reaching a total of over $3 billion in overall bets.
Kalshi and Polymarket, trading platforms, registered historic trading volumes, exceeding even the manic trading in 2024 during the U.S. presidential election.
Record volumes take the industry into a new territory
According to Bloomberg statistics, both Kalshi and Polymarket have already surpassed the industry record for weekly trading of over $2 billion each as of October 19. These boom prospects were reported by the large financial institutions, such as CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which are currently considering their own prediction-market products.
The growth was primarily driven by sports contracts on Kalshi, which leveraged its federal license to operate nationwide. August and September were the months of the football season, which resulted in an influx of new users, many of whom were added as a result of a recent partnership with Robinhood. The official filings by Kalshi confirmed the figures with Dune Analytics data, indicating that football-related contracts made up the trading in mid-October.
Kalshi took in approximately $867 million in football bets last week, and Polymarket received roughly $415 million. Kalshi was also able to offer parlay-style contracts, which enabled traders to put various outcomes in a single bet, giving Kalshi a competitive advantage.
Claire McManus, the spokesperson, affirmed that the figures provided by Kalshi were official submissions and that the platform remained stable despite increased demand. She admitted that there were brief delays in data on October 18th, but trading proceeded smoothly in the background. The trouble, she added, was soon settled.
The company continues to face legal disputes with state regulators, who allege that its operations violate local gaming laws. Kalshi asserts that its federal license, issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), supersedes the state limitations.
Polymarket grows and gets institutional attention
Polymarket, which had previously blocked U.S. traders due to regulatory issues, is now preparing to return to the U.S. market. Recently, the platform acquired QCX, an exchange with CFTC licensing, in order to facilitate U.S. access. Its trading has doubled in recent weeks, which has helped it regain the lead in total volume.
ICE also invested $2 billion in acquiring a stake in Polymarket, and CME Group indicated that it had plans to introduce contracts based on sports games. This suggests that Wall Street is becoming increasingly interested in the prediction market industry.
Political markets are still present in both Kalshi and Polymarket, with most of them predicting Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election. Trump and his supporters, such as Donald Trump Jr, have been publicly supportive of both platforms ever since Trump returned to the White House.
The mainstream investment, sports passion, and political involvement have led prediction markets to a new growth stage. Kalshi and Polymarket are transforming the convergence of trading, forecasting, and entertainment in the digital economy with billions of dollars in volume and growing institutional support.
