- Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer warns that Bitcoin still operates on a four-year cycle, despite many analysts already dismissing the trend amid new institutional dynamics.
- He predicts that the “off-year” of BTC in 2026 will bring its price down around $65K to $75K.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle is over. At least this is the narrative being circulated by heavyweights in the crypto industry, such as Bitwise, Ark Invest, and Fundstrat.
Top executives from the companies mentioned argued that Bitcoin’s dynamics have changed significantly due to the entry of institutional players and the introduction of new investment instruments linked to the asset, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). They claimed that the conventional four-year cycle no longer dictates BTC’s trend, which is strongly driven by supply shocks during halvings, media virality leading to retail FOMO (fear of missing out), new all-time highs (ATHs), and eventual deep corrections before consolidating to repeat the cycle.
Interestingly, some of their analysts even suggested that the premier crypto asset now follows a two-year cycle heavily influenced by institutional flows.
Bitcoin’s Price Still References the Four-Year Cycle
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments and a known supporter of Bitcoin, is not yet buying into projections that dismiss the traditional four-year cycle. The early adopter of BTC claimed that the price charts are still respecting the time-honored trend.
Timmer believes Bitcoin will have a rough patch next year, as it remains grounded on the patterns established in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings. He explained that the current cycle, which began at the 2024 halving, has already peaked at over $125K last October. Hence, the market is now trending toward a bearish range.
Additionally, the Fidelity official noted that Bitcoin’s prevailing ATH came after 145 weeks of rallying, which aligns with prior patterns.
How Low Will Bitcoin Go?
Timmer warned of another crypto winter that could last almost a year. The “off-year” price trajectory for Bitcoin in 2026 could push prices to critical support levels around $65K to $75K.
The scenario would not spell well for Fidelity, as it’s the second-largest issuer of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. As of Friday’s market close, the asset manager has already accumulated $12.217 billion in total net inflows from the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC). It’s only next to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), with a lead of $62.491 billion, albeit by a large margin.
Disclaimer: The analysis and commentary featured in this article are only for informational purposes. They do not constitute financial advice or a product recommendation from the author or the Blockzeit team.
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