- Grayscale said Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over, as its dynamics have significantly evolved from dependence on retail flows to one that encompasses broader institutional adoption.
The world’s largest digital asset-focused investment platform, Grayscale, confirmed in a report on Monday that Bitcoin’s (BTC) so-called four-year cycle is over. The event follows a cyclical pattern in which the premier digital asset typically experiences three years of price appreciation, followed by a deep dive over the next year.
Under this assumption, the investment manager said 2026 is expected to be a bear market. However, technical indicators negate this premise.
Grayscale Still Bullish for Bitcoin Heading to 2026
First, Grayscale explained that, unlike in the past cycle, Bitcoin didn’t experience a parabolic price increase in this year’s bull market. Hence, there’s no overshooting that warrants a significant correction.
Second, the company highlighted that BTC’s market structure has evolved. It’s no longer solely relying on retail exchange flows. This time, its volume is dominated by aggressive accumulation of exchange-traded product (ETP) issuers and digital asset treasury (DAT) companies.
Third, current macro conditions are generally favorable for Bitcoin, driven by soaring adoption and regulatory progress.
Grayscale’s views notably reflect the insights of Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley and Ed Prinz, CEO of DLT Austria. Both argued that the new BTC and crypto market structure is no longer limited to retail flows and future price speculation. Instead, new players and new reasons to buy and sell the asset have altered its dynamics.
A New All-Time High
Interestingly, Grayscale claimed that Bitcoin may be gaining momentum toward a new all-time high (ATH). It will unlikely happen this year-end, but the investment manager believes its big leap could be due by next year.
Grayscale didn’t mention any numbers in its prediction. For the record, Bitcoin’s record-peak against the US dollar stands at $126,198.07 per BTC. It reached this value on October 7th, just days before the massive crypto liquidations on October 10th.
Bitcoin’s Performance
Bitcoin recaptured the $92K mark on Tuesday evening (UTC) from an $84K low in the last 24 hours. This occurred as the daily chart displayed oversold signals and a bullish MACD reversal.
Several analysts also attributed its rebound to a surge in stablecoin liquidity caused by around $20 billion in tokens minted since October. The occasion has primed buy pressure in the market.
Furthermore, Vanguard’s announced entry into the crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, accompanied by renewed BTC whale accumulation, sparked hype for BTC and large-cap altcoins.
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