Bitcoin’s short-term outlook may appear bleak with the price hovering around $105,000, but the U.S. fiscal picture looks considerably brighter.
According to CNBC, the U.S. Treasury recorded a $198 billion surplus in September 2025, the largest for that month on record. This strong finish contributed to reducing the fiscal 2025 deficit to $1.78 trillion, about $41 billion (2.2%) less than in 2024.
While September typically records a fiscal surplus due to tax payments, this time an additional factor contributed – import duties (tariffs), which President Donald Trump introduced in April. Tariffs brought in $30 billion in revenue in September, almost half of what had been forecasted for the entire fiscal year.
These revenues helped offset record-high interest payments on the $38 trillion national debt, which have reached over $1.2 trillion annually. In September, net interest payments totaled $37 billion, making it the fourth-largest federal outlay for the month. It trailed behind Social Security ($133 billion), health spending ($94 billion), and national defense ($76 billion).
The stronger-than-expected revenue from Trump’s tariffs suggests he is likely to stay committed to his trade war strategy despite potential market volatility. This could prompt investors to shift away from risk assets and seek safety in alternatives like bonds and gold, mirroring the market reaction seen during the April “tariff tantrum”.
While potential worsening of trade tensions could add to inflation, the Federal Reserve expects any price increases to be temporary and is likely to continue lowering interest rates, currently at 4.00% to 4.25%.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, the market is pricing in 50bps worth of rate cuts for 2025, taking the benchmark rate to 3.50 to 3.75%. It remains to be seen if the impending easing provides relief to risk assets.
